A note on this publication: Our thoughts are with the communities across Nepal and the wider Himalayan region who have lost so much in the disaster of August 2026. This report was already underway before that event, but we share this abridged version now, ahead of its full publication in October, in the hope it contributes to the resilience-building this region urgently needs.
This research is published in partnership with Integrated Mountain Initiative, supported by The Rockefeller Foundation, ahead of the full report’s launch at the IMI Mountain Summit in October. We also thank ICIMOD and G.B. Pant NIHE for their technical contributions and co-developing key concepts.
The Himalayas are facing cascading tipping points, with hundreds of millions of people living in the path of that change. Our research finds Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65% faster than they were a decade ago, and India alone has 56 glacial lakes rated very high risk. As glaciers retreat, they’re leaving behind unstable lakes held back by little more than loose rock and ice, while the frozen layer that holds these mountains together starts to thaw. This report makes the case for a new growth model for the region, one that can keep pace with how quickly these risks are building.
The Himalayas must be understood, and managed, as national infrastructure, on which the water, food and economic security of hundreds of millions of people across South Asia ultimately depend.
The heart of the challenge is a growth model putting pressure on Himalayan systems at three levels. Globally, warming created elsewhere is destabilising a cryosphere the region did not put at risk. Regionally, black carbon drifting up from the plains settles on the same glaciers, accelerating the melt driving today’s disasters, a lever, unlike global warming itself, the region and India can act on directly. Our research shows roughly a third of Himalayan glacier melt is driven by black carbon, largely from brick kilns in the plains, making this one of the few levers the region can pull now. Locally, the mountains cost roughly 2.5 times more to build and deliver services in than the plains, yet generate enormous value for the wider economy. Once its full downstream reach is traced, Himalayan water underpins roughly 20% of India’s GDP. The states that steward this system capture only around 5% of that value themselves.
Key Findings
Glacier loss is accelerating. Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65% faster than they were a decade ago. Black carbon is a lever the region can pull now. Roughly a third of Himalayan glacier melt is driven by black carbon, largely from brick kilns in the plains. Unlike global warming, this is locally addressable.
- The Himalayas are national infrastructure underpinning over 20% of India’s GDP.
- Ten critical transitions are needed to achieve a Resilient Himalayas offering an average adjusted return of roughly 8x for each Rupee invested when their economic, ecological, social and avoided-loss value is counted together
- A dual engine of public-private institutional architecture is needed to deliver them.
A way forward
A system problem needs a system response, and the risks now unfolding leave little time to wait. Our research sets out a path built on three levels that need to work together: securing the natural foundations the region depends on, building the resilience to withstand the shocks that are now unavoidable, and unlocking a growth model built with the mountains rather than against them.
We’ve identified ten priority transitions across these three levels, offering an average adjusted return of roughly 8x when their economic, ecological, social and avoided-loss value is counted together, and a public-private architecture to deliver them.
The Himalayas have long been a source of resilience and renewal for the people who call them home. Securing that future now depends on collective action.
“The Himalayas are the Third Pole, and unlike the Arctic or Antarctic, this pole has hundreds of millions of people living beneath it. This is national and international infrastructure, and the ecological system underpinning it is approaching a tipping point. Protecting it is the foundation on which the region’s future prosperity depends, and that prosperity extends well beyond India’s borders, to the food, water and economic security of communities across South Asia and the wider world who depend on what these mountains provide. It is time to drive towards a new model of economic growth, one that strengthens both the communities and the natural systems on which they depend.”
Lord Nicholas SternChair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE
“The Hindu Kush Himalaya is changing rapidly. Glaciers are retreating, permafrost and high-mountain slopes are becoming increasingly unstable, and communities and infrastructure downstream face growing risks from complex and cascading hazards. Recent events have shown that these risks extend well beyond glacial lake outburst floods. They do not respect national borders, and no single country can address them alone. This report makes a strong case for coordinated action, including bringing the private sector behind resilient action. Cross-border monitoring, shared risk information and early-warning systems, and joint investment in resilience are becoming essential for safeguarding lives, livelihoods and economies across the region.”
Dr Pema GyamtshoDirector General at ICIMOD
If you would like to discuss this further with a member of our team, please contact Arushi Chopra or Deeptanshu Kotru.
