{"id":2492,"date":"2024-04-17T11:00:40","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T10:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.systemiq.earth\/reports\/?page_id=2492"},"modified":"2024-04-30T10:33:43","modified_gmt":"2024-04-30T09:33:43","slug":"scenarios","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.systemiq.earth\/reports\/plastictreatyfutures\/scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Plastic Treaty Futures Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"[vc_row type=”full_width_background” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” bg_color=”#10195b” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overflow=”visible” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none” gradient_type=”default” shape_type=””][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” 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width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” enable_animation=”true” animation=”fade-in-from-bottom” animation_easing=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_row_inner column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” top_padding=”7%” bottom_padding=”7%” left_padding_desktop=”15%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”15%” left_padding_tablet=”2%” constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”2%” left_padding_phone=”2%” constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”2%” text_align=”left” row_position=”default” row_position_tablet=”inherit” row_position_phone=”inherit” overflow=”visible” pointer_events=”all” class=”ppc-banner-content”][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”left” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid” column_padding_type=”default” gradient_type=”default”][vc_custom_heading text=”Plastic Treaty Futures” font_container=”tag:h4|text_align:left|color:%23fcfcfc” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_custom_heading text=”Scenarios” font_container=”tag:h1|text_align:left|color:%23fcfcfc” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”full_width_background” 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tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” enable_animation=”true” animation=”fade-in-from-bottom” animation_easing=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

FIRST, A LITTLE ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY<\/p>\n

Geographic scope of modelling<\/span><\/h3>\n

Modelling was split into 9 distinct regions of similar characteristics:<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” text_align=”left” row_position=”default” row_position_tablet=”inherit” row_position_phone=”inherit” overflow=”visible” pointer_events=”all”][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”2\/3″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][image_with_animation image_url=”2371″ image_size=”large” animation_type=”entrance” animation=”Fade In From Left” animation_easing=”default” animation_movement_type=”transform_y” hover_animation=”none” constrain_group_1=”yes” constrain_group_2=”yes” alignment=”” border_radius=”none” box_shadow=”none” image_loading=”default” max_width=”100%” max_width_mobile=”default” margin_top=”30″ margin_bottom=”30″ margin_left=”8%” margin_right=”8%”][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/3″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

9 Regions<\/h4>\n

\u2b24<\/span> AP4 (Australia, Japan, New Zealand & Republic of Korea)
\n\u2b24<\/span> China
\n\u2b24<\/span> Europe (Incl. T\u00fcrkiye)
\n\u2b24<\/span> ESS Asia (Eurasia, South & Southeast Asia)
\n\u2b24<\/span> India
\n\u2b24<\/span> LAC (Latin America & Caribbean)
\n\u2b24<\/span> MENA (Middle East & North Africa)
\n\u2b24<\/span> North America (Canada & USA)
\n\u2b24<\/span> SSA (Sub-Saharan Africa)[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

For a full set of regional results, please refer to the Regional Analysis Tool<\/a>.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” top_padding=”5%” bottom_padding=”1%” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overflow=”visible” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none” gradient_type=”default” shape_type=””][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/6″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][\/vc_column][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”2\/3″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

Sector scope of modelling<\/span><\/h3>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner equal_height=”yes” content_placement=”middle” column_margin=”50px” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” text_align=”left” row_position=”default” row_position_tablet=”inherit” row_position_phone=”inherit” overflow=”visible” pointer_events=”all”][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/3″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

9 Sectors<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The model includes all main economic sectors and plastic applications.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”2\/3″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][image_with_animation image_url=”2391″ image_size=”full” animation_type=”entrance” animation=”Fade In From Right” animation_easing=”default” animation_movement_type=”transform_y” hover_animation=”none” alignment=”” border_radius=”5px” box_shadow=”none” image_loading=”default” max_width=”100%” max_width_mobile=”default”][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/6″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”full_width_background” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” bg_color=”#ffffff” scene_position=”center” top_padding=”0″ bottom_padding=”2%” left_padding_desktop=”9%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”9%” left_padding_tablet=”5%” constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”5%” left_padding_phone=”3%” constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”3%” text_color=”dark” text_align=”center” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overflow=”visible” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” shape_divider_height=”10%” shape_divider_bring_to_front=”true” bg_image_animation=”none” gradient_type=”default” shape_type=”speech”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_row_inner column_margin=”40px” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” top_padding=”3%” left_padding_desktop=”15%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”15%” top_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_3=”yes” bottom_padding_tablet=”0″ left_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”0″ top_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_5=”yes” bottom_padding_phone=”0″ left_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”0″ text_align=”left” row_position=”default” row_position_tablet=”inherit” row_position_phone=”inherit” overflow=”visible” pointer_events=”all”][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

Framework for modelling alternative scenarios<\/span><\/h2>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

The goal of this analysis is to encapsulate the diverse perspectives and priorities of member states, offering a comprehensive analysis of possible paths forward in the negotiations. The modelling framework is organised along two critical axes based on fundamental differences in approaches espoused by member states in the negotiations thus far. These axes serve as the foundation for distinguishing between the scenarios modelled:<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner column_margin=”40px” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” left_padding_desktop=”15%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”15%” top_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_3=”yes” bottom_padding_tablet=”0″ left_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”0″ top_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_5=”yes” bottom_padding_phone=”0″ left_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”0″ text_align=”left” row_position=”default” row_position_tablet=”inherit” row_position_phone=”inherit” overflow=”visible” pointer_events=”all”][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/2″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

Scope of action<\/span><\/h4>\n

This axis ranges from comprehensive strategies across the full plastic lifecycle to those with a more focused approach, concentrating on downstream impacts. Both of these represent views that are advocated by a meaningful number of countries.<\/p>\n

The full lifecycle perspective encompasses the entire plastics journey, from production and use to disposal and recycling<\/strong>, advocating for comprehensive measures that address the root causes of plastic pollution (eg, reduction and redesign). In contrast, the downstream focus targets the latter stages of the plastic lifecycle, emphasising waste management, recycling and reduction of plastic leakage into the environment.<\/strong><\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/2″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

Degree of coordination<\/span><\/h4>\n

This axis contrasts the level of international collaboration and agreement on legally binding global rules and ambitions with approaches that favour national action guided by non-binding targets and guidelines. Again, these represent different visions for the instrument voiced by negotiating member states.<\/p>\n

At one end, consensus on global rules signifies a unified commitment to ambitious, legally binding targets and policies<\/strong> aimed at achieving significant reductions in plastic pollution on a global scale. At the other, a more decentralised approach favours national action based on non-binding targets, with countries setting their own goals<\/strong> within a framework of international guidelines \u2013 which allows for flexibility, but could also lead to varied levels of commitment and effectiveness.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner column_margin=”40px” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” left_padding_desktop=”15%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”15%” top_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_3=”yes” bottom_padding_tablet=”0″ left_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”0″ top_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_5=”yes” bottom_padding_phone=”0″ left_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”0″ text_align=”left” row_position=”default” row_position_tablet=”inherit” row_position_phone=”inherit” overflow=”visible” pointer_events=”all”][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

By examining the interplay between these axes, our framework identifies four scenarios that reflect a range of potential outcomes for the instrument.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text text_direction=”default” css=”.vc_custom_1713169862001{padding-top: -20px !important;padding-bottom: -10px !important;}”]\n

Framework for scenarios for the instrument<\/strong><\/h5>\n[\/vc_column_text][divider line_type=”Full Width Line” line_thickness=”1″ divider_color=”accent-color” animate=”yes”][image_with_animation image_url=”2560″ image_size=”full” animation_type=”entrance” animation=”None” animation_movement_type=”transform_y” hover_animation=”none” constrain_group_2=”yes” constrain_group_4=”yes” constrain_group_6=”yes” alignment=”” border_radius=”none” box_shadow=”none” image_loading=”default” max_width=”100%” max_width_mobile=”default” margin_left=”15%” margin_right=”15%” margin_left_tablet=”3%” margin_right_tablet=”3%” margin_left_phone=”2%” margin_right_phone=”2%”][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”full_width_background” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” bg_color=”#ffffff” scene_position=”center” bottom_padding=”3%” left_padding_desktop=”9%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”9%” left_padding_tablet=”5%” constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”5%” left_padding_phone=”3%” constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”3%” text_color=”dark” text_align=”center” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overflow=”visible” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” shape_divider_height=”10%” shape_divider_bring_to_front=”true” bg_image_animation=”none” gradient_type=”default” shape_type=”speech”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_row_inner column_margin=”40px” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” top_padding=”3%” left_padding_desktop=”15%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”15%” top_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_3=”yes” bottom_padding_tablet=”0″ left_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”0″ top_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_5=”yes” bottom_padding_phone=”0″ left_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”0″ text_align=”left” row_position=”default” row_position_tablet=”inherit” row_position_phone=”inherit” overflow=”visible” pointer_events=”all”][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

Policies under consideration<\/span><\/h2>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner column_margin=”40px” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” left_padding_desktop=”15%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”15%” top_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_3=”yes” bottom_padding_tablet=”0″ left_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”0″ top_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_5=”yes” bottom_padding_phone=”0″ left_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”0″ text_align=”left” row_position=”default” row_position_tablet=”inherit” row_position_phone=”inherit” overflow=”visible” pointer_events=”all”][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/2″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

The policies under consideration for each scenario build on the comprehensive set of 15 policies outlined in the Global Rules Scenario (GRS) described in Towards Ending Plastic Pollution by 2040<\/a> (below). This is identical to the Global Full Lifecycle Scenario in this report \u2013 thus named to clearly distinguish it according to the two axes outlined above.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/2″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

The Global Full Lifecycle Scenario, does not suggest binding global rules in every policy area or the need to sacrifice national sovereignty. Rather, the scenario describes consensus on a consistent and harmonised global approach, particularly in those policy areas where coordination is most critical. Countries will continue to set their own laws and national action plans, adopting regionally appropriate measures in line with agreed ambitions and approaches.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner column_margin=”40px” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” left_padding_desktop=”15%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”15%” top_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_3=”yes” bottom_padding_tablet=”0″ left_padding_tablet=”0″ constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”0″ top_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_5=”yes” bottom_padding_phone=”0″ left_padding_phone=”0″ constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”0″ text_align=”left” row_position=”default” row_position_tablet=”inherit” row_position_phone=”inherit” overflow=”visible” pointer_events=”all”][vc_column_inner column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” overflow=”visible” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

The Global Full Lifecycle Scenario involves 15 global policy interventions assumed to be legally binding, concurrent and implemented in all regions and across the full plastic lifecycle:<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text text_direction=”default” css=”.vc_custom_1713190487826{padding-top: -20px !important;padding-bottom: -10px !important;}”]\n

Policies included in the Global Full Lifecycle Scenario, as shown in the report \u2018Towards Ending Plastic Pollution by 2040<\/em><\/a>\u2019<\/strong><\/h5>\n[\/vc_column_text][divider line_type=”Full Width Line” line_thickness=”1″ divider_color=”accent-color” animate=”yes”][image_with_animation image_url=”2501″ image_size=”full” animation_type=”entrance” animation=”None” animation_movement_type=”transform_y” hover_animation=”none” alignment=”right” img_link_target=”_blank” border_radius=”none” box_shadow=”none” image_loading=”default” max_width=”100%” max_width_mobile=”default” img_link=”https:\/\/www.systemiq.earth\/reports\/wp-content\/uploads\/Plastic_Treaty_Futures-15_Policies.svg”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default” css=”.vc_custom_1713193084300{padding-top: 30px !important;}”]\n

For a detailed description of the 15 policies modelled see \u201cTowards Ending Plastic Pollution by 2040<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

The two scenarios encompassing a full lifecycle approach cover all 15 policy areas. In contrast, the downstream-focused scenarios model the adoption of a specific subset of policies advocated by countries that support this approach.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text text_direction=”default” css=”.vc_custom_1713171557050{padding-top: -20px !important;padding-bottom: -10px !important;}”]\n

Policies in scope for full lifecycle and waste management
\nscenarios<\/strong><\/h5>\n[\/vc_column_text][divider line_type=”Full Width Line” line_thickness=”1″ divider_color=”accent-color” animate=”yes”][image_with_animation image_url=”2505″ image_size=”full” animation_type=”entrance” animation=”None” animation_movement_type=”transform_y” hover_animation=”none” alignment=”right” border_radius=”none” box_shadow=”none” image_loading=”default” max_width=”100%” max_width_mobile=”default”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

The impacts of these policies are estimated to vary based on the degree of coordination involved. Under the scenarios assuming global coordination, the estimated policy impacts are assumed to be equal to the ambition outlined in the Global Full Lifecycle Scenario. That scenario was designed to minimise the negative impacts of mismanaged plastics and plastic releases (including microplastics) into the environment by 2040. It assumed adoption across all geographies, while taking account of diverse regional contexts and different starting points and needs. The potential impact of these policies in each sector and region were based on estimates of the maximum feasible impact from academic literature, existing policies and validation with experts (see the Technical Annex \u2197<\/a>). The Global Waste Management Scenario in this report assumes a uniform global ambition level for relevant downstream policies.<\/p>\n

It is not possible to empirically establish the impact of an uncoordinated approach on policy effectiveness compared to globally coordinated interventions. By extrapolating from the Paris Agreement\u2019s nationally determined contribution (NDC) process, we estimate that the two scenarios emphasising national action without consensus on global rules might at best achieve 60% of the impact per policy intervention of the Global Full Lifecycle Scenario in general (see Annex B). This is an uncertain but critical assumption, which is why the Scenario Explorer tool allows users to adjust this assumption on a regional level.<\/p>\n

It is worth noting that these assumptions are optimistic and are based on an ambitious implementation of each scenario. They assume the adoption of significant measures across the globe: for example, the National Full Lifecycle Scenario assumes that countries adopt EPR schemes and impose bans on single use plastics, design for recycling requirements, plastic reduction targets, reuse targets and more \u2013 all at 60% of the level assumed under the Global Full Lifecycle Scenario. This is an average level, which means either that all countries adopt the policies at the 60% level or that some countries adopt a lower level of ambition while others adopt a higher level.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” top_padding=”0%” bottom_padding=”0%” left_padding_desktop=”20%” constrain_group_2=”yes” right_padding_desktop=”20%” left_padding_tablet=”2%” constrain_group_4=”yes” right_padding_tablet=”2%” left_padding_phone=”2%” constrain_group_6=”yes” right_padding_phone=”2%” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overflow=”visible” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none” gradient_type=”default” shape_type=””][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color=”#bac7ef” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid” column_padding_type=”default” gradient_type=”default”][toggles style=”minimal_shadow” border_radius=”none”][toggle color=”Default” heading_tag=”h5″ heading_tag_functionality=”change_html_tag” title=”Policies for which coordination is essential”][vc_column_text text_direction=”default”]\n

Plastics are a ubiquitous and globally traded commodity. Consequently, coordinated action at the regional, national and subnational levels is critical to tackle plastic pollution in the most cost-effective manner and secure support from industry. For example, the Business Coalition for a Global Plastics Treaty calls for the adoption of harmonised EPR systems, product design criteria and measures to address chemicals and polymers of concern, as well as avoidable and problematic plastic products. This is because fragmented regulation increases compliance costs and reduces the ability and willingness of businesses to implement new solutions. While some degree of coordination is generally beneficial for all policies, the following classification aims to identify the areas in which such alignment is most critical, based on conversations with academics, practitioners and policymakers:<\/p>\n

Tier 1
\nGlobal coordination is critical for the harmonisation of definitions and standards across global supply chains, to reduce the cost and complexity of implementation and secure support from industry:<\/strong><\/p>\n