Systemiq's Steel-IQ 2.0 model shows that without action on feedstock security, flexible capacity and early OEM engagement, high-carbon steelmaking capacity risks remaining operational well into the second half of this century.
Steel is the backbone of the global economy. It is also responsible for 7–9% of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than any other material. A credible path to decarbonising the sector by mid-century exists, but whether the industry takes it and how fast, will shape both climate outcomes and the competitive fortunes of producers, governments, and investors for decades to come.
The whitepaper, drawing on Steel-IQ, Systemiq’s open-source techno-economic model of the global iron and steel sector, identifies four forms of inertia obstructing the transition under almost any scenario. It is designed for industry, policymakers, investors and civil society to test transition pathways, understand trade-offs and identify where action is most urgent.
The steel transition is no longer only a question of long-term targets. Governments across the political spectrum are competing to retain or expand steel capacity as a foundation of industrial sovereignty, supply-chain security, and employment. The Steel-IQ analysis makes clear that how quickly producers, investors, and policymakers act on feedstock security, flexible capacity, and early OEM engagement will determine not just emissions trajectories, but which producers remain competitive through the transition.
The model’s findings also challenge some common assumptions. While global scrap volumes are projected to more than double by 2050, scrap quality constraints may limit its application in high-specification products. And while technological breakthroughs could ease both ore and scrap limitations, these are unlikely to arrive at scale within the critical investment window.
What is new in Steel-IQ 2.0
Steel-IQ 2.0 is faster, more user-friendly and retains the transparency and flexibility valued by users across industry, policy, finance and civil society.
The model helps users explore how different choices on technology, policy, trade and investment could shape the future of steel. It provides a practical tool for moving from ambition to strategy, and from strategy to implementation.
