Breaking the plastic wave:

A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF PATHWAYS TOWARDS STOPPING OCEAN PLASTIC POLLUTION

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NEW REPORT FROM SYSTEMIQ and THE PEW CHARITABLE TRUSTS SHOWS Plastic Flows Into the Ocean Expected to Triple by 2040 - but Immediate Action Could Stem Tide by More Than 80%

Developed by The Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ, “Breaking the Plastic Wave: A Comprehensive Assessment of Pathways Towards Stopping Ocean Plastic Pollution” presents a first-of-its-kind model of the global plastics system. It is an evidence-based roadmap that describes how to radically reduce ocean plastic pollution by 2040 and shows there is a comprehensive, integrated, and economically attractive pathway to greatly reduce plastic waste entering our ocean.

The research supporting this report was co-developed with 17 experts from across the spectrum of professionals looking at the plastic pollution problem, with broad geographical representation. The findings of our analysis were published in the peer-reviewed journal, Science.

The aim of this work is to help guide policymakers, industry executives, investors, and civil society leaders through highly contested, often data-poor, and complex terrain.

By highlighting the systemic link between better plastic design, reuse, improved recycling economics, and increased collection incentives, these reports provided a central theme for the challenge addressed in “Breaking the Plastic Wave”: how to apply the concept of a circular economy—along with increased reduction and substitution of plastics, and better waste management—in a way that urgently addresses this serious environmental challenge.

The model is already being applied at the national level in Indonesia under the public-private collaboration National Plastic Action Partnership. This model can also be updated by stakeholders on an ongoing basis to inform solutions to the plastics pollution problem.

The problem of ocean plastic pollution was created in a lifetime, and we have reason to believe that it can be solved within a generation, or sooner. But such a solution requires political leaders, policymakers, business executives, and investors to shift from incremental to systemic change.

Among our findings, one is particularly stark: On the current trajectory, which we call Business-as-Usual, annual flows of plastic into the ocean could nearly triple by 2040. What’s more, even if all current major industry and government commitments are met, the world would see a reduction in annual rates of plastic pollution flowing into the ocean of only 7 per cent from the Business-as-Usual scenario.

Yet we also show that if the world were to apply and robustly invest in all the technologies, management practices, and policy approaches currently available—including reduction, recycling, and plastic substitution—in 20 years there would be about an 80 per cent reduction from the current trajectory in the flow of plastic into the ocean. And the new solutions recommended in this report would provide consumers with the same services that plastic delivers today—at a lower cost to society.

To learn more, contact the team on [email protected].

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Plastic IQ:

Developed as a result of the stark findings in Breaking the Plastic Wave, Plastic IQ is an open-access digital tool designed to take US companies’ commitments to circularity and reduce plastic waste to the next level and beyond. Developed by SYSTEMIQ and The Recycling Partnership, and funded by Walmart.

To learn more, contact the team on [email protected].

Visit the website

Achieving Circularity Logo
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ACHIEVING CIRCULARITY

The report provides a sensible roadmap to reduce plastic waste in Norway. Complimenting the report, is an open-access science-based online tool, Plastsimulatordesigned to enable stakeholders to create and test their own change scenarios and understand the impacts of different combination of interventions across the full plastics value chain.

Download the report

Use the PLASTSIMULATOR

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Report endorsements

“We applaud the depth and rigor of this report on what’s necessary to stop ocean plastic pollution. Mars is committed to being a part of the transformational system change that this issue requires. We’re taking action by removing packaging we don’t need, exploring reuse models, redesigning what we do need for circularity, and investing to close the packaging waste loop with recycling systems that work for business and communities. We have much to do, so we must work together as a global community like never before.”

Grant ReidCEO, Mars Inc.

"Addressing the challenge of plastic waste is both urgent and complex and will require accelerated, collective action and a transformation of the way society thinks about single-use plastics. This report calls for immediate bold action in the global effort to stem the tide of ocean plastics. It makes clear that through increased collaboration, across industries, we can help create systems change, build a circular economy for packaging, and turn the corner on ocean plastics.”

Ramon Laguartachairman and CEO, PepsiCo

“The ocean is being filled with plastic—hurting sea life and the billions of people who depend on the ocean for food, livelihoods and recreation. This is entirely unnecessary and unacceptable. This new important report, “Breaking the Plastic Wave” presents important solutions that can reduce plastic flows by 80% over the next 20 years. It is urgent that industry and government leaders follow these recommendations—starting today.”

Andrew Steerpresident and CEO, World Resources Institute

“Despite the awareness-raising and global efforts to reduce plastic production, consumption, and waste in our oceans, the current trajectory points to a dire outcome without a concerted effort to mobilise industry, civil society, and governments to address this critical environmental issue. This well-researched, peer-reviewed report from The Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ provides a roadmap for the investment and innovation required to tackle the challenge. The report also shows us that economically viable solutions exist today that are implementable if all relevant stakeholders across the value chain act with urgency.

Marisa DrewCEO Impact Advisory Finance Department, Credit Suisse

“This report is an important contribution to understanding the nature of the marine plastic pollution problem and provides many important ideas and proposals that diplomats and other actors will need to consider in deciding how the global community can effectively address this pressing problem.”

Her Excellency Ms. Thilmeeza HussainAmbassador of the Maldives to the United States and Permanent Representative of the Maldives to the United Nations

“Breaking the Plastic Wave” brings an unprecedented level of detail into the global plastic system, confirming that without fundamental change, annual flows of plastic into the ocean could nearly triple by 2040. To turn the tide on plastic waste and pollution, we need to radically increase our efforts and speed up the transition to a circular economy. We must eliminate the plastics we don’t need, and drastically reduce virgin plastic use. We need to innovate to create new materials and business models based on reuse and refill systems. And we need improved infrastructure to ensure that all plastics we use are circulated in the economy and never become waste or pollution. The question is not whether a circular economy for plastic is possible, but what we will do together to make it happen.”

Dame Ellen MacArthurfounder and chair of trustees, Ellen MacArthur Foundation

“If we’re going to significantly reduce ocean plastic pollution, we need an innovative and rigorous approach to ensure that the strategies we design are set up to delivering results. This research does exactly that. By identifying a modelling approach that looks at plastic pollution holistically, we’re able to better measure the environmental, economic, and social impact of the strategies being considered, and call for a greater level of ambition and immediate action from all stakeholders. This deeper understanding will help companies, governments, and other stakeholders to strengthen their efforts on plastic pollution. It will continue to be crucial to monitor and evaluate strategies on the ground to ensure that we as a society are delivering against our ambition.”

Erin SimonHead, plastic and business, World Wildlife Fund

“This is a seminal piece of work on a topic of global importance. It will guide countries to align and unite as we move to conquer the plastic problem.”

Professor Juliet A. Gerrardchief science advisor to the Prime Minister of New Zealand

“Break Free From Plastic (BFFP) welcomes “Breaking the Plastic Wave” as a helpful addition to the global conversation about this rapidly growing threat to human and ecosystem health. “Breaking the Plastic Wave” demonstrates that no solution to the plastic crisis is possible without prioritizing urgent action to reduce the quantity of plastic used and produced. The report makes clear that existing private-sector commitments and public policies to limit plastic pollution are wholly inadequate and demonstrates that industry’s expansion plans will produce even more staggering quantities of plastic pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and irreversible damage to the ocean. While we agree with the report’s general recommendation calling for a radical system change in how the world deals with plastic, we disagree that certain technologies analyzed in the report—including incineration, chemical recycling, and plastic-to-fuel—are part of that solution, as they will only perpetuate the problem as we see it. Above all, this report should serve as a wake-up call to governments: They must step in to halt the expansion of plastic production. Only then can we begin to see significant and sustained decline of plastic leakage into the oceans and to the environment.”

Von Hernandezglobal coordinator, Break Free From Plastic

“The plastic problem took a lifetime to create and could be solved in a generation. That’s the stark message of “Breaking the Plastic Wave,” a welcome and comprehensive look at what we need to do—at every layer of society—to clean up the mess we are making. Its positive message is that we already have the solutions we need to address the challenge. But we will need to step up with multi-stakeholder coalitions that can tackle each element of the agenda as they are laid out here.”

Laura Tuckformer vice president for sustainable development, World Bank

“Breaking the Plastic Wave: A Comprehensive Assessment of Pathways Towards Stopping Ocean Plastic Pollution” comes at a critical time to inform global discussions and help decision-makers evaluate options that will eliminate the long-term flow of plastic and microplastics into the ocean. By providing the evidence base for a way forward, the study convincingly shows the need for system-wide change and urgent action across the entire value chain. It inspires by demonstrating that projected plastic leakage can be reduced by 80% with existing solutions. The next two years will be critical in getting the world on a zero-plastic pollution path. We need to catalyse rapid transition; we need to act now!”

Inger AndersenU.N. Under-Secretary-General and executive director, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

“Since starting to campaign against plastic pollution at 12 years old, I have seen numerous efforts come and go. Being born and raised in Bali, Indonesia, it was like watching the problem of plastic grow up with you. This is why we understood early on the importance of data and consistency. It is beyond exciting to hear that my home country has already applied the model featured in “Breaking the Plastic Wave.” The only way forward is collaboration and persistence; let’s turn the tide on plastic pollution once and forever.”

Melati Wijsenfounder, Bye Bye Plastic Bags
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Key facts

40

of today’s global plastic waste ends up in the environment

7

reduction of leakage if all current government and industry commitments were implemented by 2040

500

people need to be connected every day until 2040 to close the collection gap

11

of leakage is microplastic in 2016

45

of today's leakage is from rural areas, where collection economics don’t work

21

of plastics are economically recyclable (but only 15% are actually recycled) in 2016

19

share of carbon budget used by plastic industry by 2040 under BAU to stay under 1.5°C

80

share of leakage from flexible and multi-layer plastics in 2016
Breaking The Plastic Wave Fast Facts
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Fast facts

A single page showcasing our most important findings; a tool for developing talking points and other assets to embed the report’s top messages.

Download fast facts

    BREAKING THE PLASTIC WAVE:
    A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF PATHWAYS TOWARDS STOPPING OCEAN PLASTIC POLLUTION